Over the past five years, two major conflicts—the Russia-Ukraine war that erupted in February 2022 and the escalation of the Middle East conflict that peaked with the Red Sea crisis in late 2023—have drastically reshaped the global logistics cost landscape. No single figure can capture the full impact, because every route, commodity, and mode of transport has faced different pressures. Yet from various reports by international financial institutions, industry associations, and government data, a rough estimate can be assembled: global export-import logistics costs have risen by an average of 30% to 50% compared with the pre-conflict period, with peak surges on certain routes reaching several times that level.
This estimate is not a single official figure but a synthesis of several complementary data points. The World Economic Forum, as cited in industry reports, noted that the Red Sea crisis has pushed shipping rates up by more than 30% on a number of routes. J.P. Morgan Research offered a sharper picture: spot rates from Asia to Europe surged nearly fivefold from December 2023 levels, while rates from China to the United States more than doubled. Coface recorded that rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route in January-October 2025 remained 80% higher than the same period in 2023, after briefly rising sevenfold in July 2024.
From Indonesia's side, Trade Minister Budi Santoso in March 2026 reported international logistics cost increases of 50-100 percent due to disruptions to global trade routes. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) provided a consistent figure: freight and insurance costs rose by around 50%, contributing to a 30% decline in Indonesia's CPO exports in February-March 2026. These figures show that the global impact is uneven, but the direction is clear: logistics cost pressure sits in the tens of percent, with outliers on specific routes and at specific times.
The Russia-Ukraine war provided the first and earliest contribution to this surge. UNCTAD reported that between February and May 2022, dry bulk freight rates for goods such as wheat rose nearly 60%. Global bunker fuel prices (VLSFO) rose 64% by the end of May 2022 compared with the start of the same year, subsequently spilling over into overall transport costs. Disruptions in the Black Sea forced route diversions and raised insurance costs, while sanctions on Russia reshaped global energy and agricultural commodity flows. The impact did not fade quickly; fertilizer and food prices remained volatile through 2025, with logistics costs one of the components holding back price declines.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict in 2026, with disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, added a third layer. Although shorter in duration, its impact on logistics costs was sharp. Around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day pass through Hormuz, with energy trade value approaching $600 billion per year. When traffic was disrupted, ships had to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding **3,500-4,000 miles** and **10-14 days** of transit. Twenty-foot container charter costs rose by around **$200**, equivalent to a 15-20% rate increase. Major shipping lines such as CMA CGM imposed an "emergency conflict surcharge" of $2,000-4,000 per container, while Hapag-Lloyd applied a **"war risk surcharge"** of up to $1,500 per TEU. At this point, logistics cost increases were no longer gradual but sudden spikes charged directly to shippers.
Averaged roughly, taking into account the five-year period (2022-2026) and weighing the duration of each crisis, the increase in global export-import logistics costs can be estimated at around 30-40% above the pre-conflict baseline. This figure is a compromise between the extreme surges on certain routes (Asia-Europe, Red Sea, Hormuz) and the more moderate impact on other routes not directly exposed. For Indonesia's context, the Trade Ministry cited 50-100% in March 2026, and Gapki cited around 50% for freight and insurance costs—figures that reflect Indonesia's position as an archipelagic nation heavily dependent on sea routes and directly exposed to disrupted lanes.
It should be emphasized that this estimate is rough and does not replace official data. No multilateral institution publishes a single index of "logistics cost increases due to war" for the entire world. The 30-50% figure is a synthesis of available data fragments, and each business will experience a different magnitude depending on commodity, route, and shipping timing. Nevertheless, the direction and scale are clear enough: global export-import logistics costs have risen significantly, and this pressure has not fully eased even as some routes show signs of normalization.
For export-import players, the implications are both operational and strategic. Operationally, shipment planning must account for longer transit times, higher insurance costs, and the potential for sudden surcharges. Strategically, route and market diversification are becoming increasingly important—as the Indonesian government has begun doing by directing exports to countries not affected by conflict. Over the past five years, the world has learned that logistics costs are no longer a stable variable but one that can change drastically within days due to geopolitical events. This rough estimate of 30-50% is a reminder that international trade is never truly "free" of political costs.